Breaking Bad Finale: My (Probably Wrong) Predictions

Sunday night, beginning at 9 PM, I will be glued to my TV.  It will be both exhilarating and heart-breaking, because after Sunday, Breaking Bad will be over.

I was a latecomer to the series.  I didn't start watching until after the end of season three.  A coworker had been raving about the show and encouraging me to watch it, but I resisted.  I thought, how was I supposed to get any enjoyment out of watching a couple of losers cook meth?  But I decided to give it a shot.  The first three seasons were available on Netflix, and after the first couple of episodes, I was hooked.  Pun intended.  If you've resisted watching the show, I strongly encourage you to give it a shot.  There are good reasons why it's won a ton of awards and why you hear people say it's the best show that's ever been on television.

Reluctant viewers: Have I convinced you?  If so, you might want to stop reading now, because I'm going to spoil the hell out of some major events up to and including last week's episode.  I'm going to give my best predictions for the finale and my thoughts as to who will live or die (and who SHOULD live or die.)

So what do we know right now, and what can we assume?

WHERE WE LEFT OFF

Walt was holed up in that cabin for at least several months.  (I don't believe the time period was made exactly clear.)  As bad as his cancer outlook was before he went on the run, we can assume it's progressed since he was only receiving his chemo treatments at monthly intervals, and it was administered by a vacuum cleaner repairman/person-disappearer.  We know he's got a gun, and we know he's got ricin, but we don't know for whom either is intended.  The likeliest scenario is that the Gretchen and Elliot interview that discounted Walt's involvement in Gray Matters has set him off on a murderous rampage.  Not against Gretchen and Elliot (I doubt we'll see them again - they've served their purpose), but rather against the Nazis who are "taking credit" for Walt's blue meth.  His call to Junior left him so hopeless that he was ready to turn himself in, but that interview lit a fire under his ass, and he's going to get vengeance for Hank's murder.

If this was real life, Jesse would probably already be dead.  He's served his purpose to Todd, aka Meth Damon, by teaching Todd to get the meth purity above 90%.  Why would the Nazis continue to allow Jesse to live, unless Todd just wants to keep him indefinitely as an enslaved cooking partner?  But surely Todd could use his newly gained skills to train a new and willing partner - one who is not a potentially liability to escape.

But I can't believe that the producers would have killed off Jesse without giving us another chance to see him.  And as much as I love Jesse, I can't see him surviving this final episode.  Watching Andrea get a bullet to the head might have destroyed any will he had left to live.  His life was pretty much over even before that, and if anything is keeping Jesse alive, maybe, like Walt, it's the desire for vengeance.

The last time we saw Skyler, three masked men were in her house, threatening her life and the life of her children.  They ordered her not to call the police, but they also dropped the little tidbit that they were there at Lydia's behest.  Of course, we don't know every conversation that took place between Walt and Skyler about the business, but I suspect she has no knowledge of the Nazis' existence, and therefore no way to identify them to the police/DEA.  We DO know that Skyler had that one confrontation with Lydia at the car wash, and maybe Walt and Skyler had some off-camera conversations where he shared additional information about Lydia.  If Skyler doesn't have enough information to somehow identify Lydia, I hope she'll at least have the sense to tell the police what happened so she can get herself and her children somewhere safe(r).

Now comes the fun part where I try to predict what may happen Sunday night.  Walt HAS to meet up separately with both Jesse and Skyler at some point, right?  I can't believe we would be deprived of those confrontations.  As far as Walt knows, Jesse is already dead.  In the months that intervened between the time that Walt ordered Jesse killed in the desert and their (presumed) meet-up Sunday, will Walt have mellowed at all?  Will he have accepted the fact that his own actions, not Jesse's, were directly responsible for Hank's death?  And maybe Junior's harsh rejection of his father on that phone call will help Walt to take responsibility for his actions.

THE FINAL SHOWDOWN

I think before Walt takes on the Nazis, he's going to have some Lydia business to take care of.  As far we know, he doesn't yet know that Lydia wanted Skyler killed.  Walt will surely track Skyler down, and Skyler will surely let him know that Lydia sicced the Nazis on her.  Walt's original intention in heading back to ABQ will likely be pushed to the back burner as he hunts down Lydia.  I'd love to see Lydia killed, but I give her about a 50-50 chance of surviving.  Ideally, he'll find her at the Nazis' meth lab, and Walt can take care of everyone at once.

Assuming the final showdown occurs at the meth lab, Walt will have to approach in a way that doesn't arouse any suspicion.  Somehow, he'll get himself into the lab, and he'll be shocked, and hopefully horrified, to see Jesse chained up.  That might make something snap inside Walt.  He'll pull a gun on Todd and order Todd to get the Nazis into the lab through some trickery.  I think Todd is the big wildcard.  He seems to worship Walt.  Might he turn on his uncle and the other Nazis to save Walt?  While everyone is down there, Walt and/or Jesse, or both together, will intentionally cause an explosion that kills everyone or almost everyone.  That would be the perfect ending, wouldn't it?

That still leaves the ricin.  If Walt dies, what would he have done with it beforehand?  I give equal probability to Walt slipping it into Lydia's drink or using it to kill himself.  Ricin takes up to three days to kill, so Walt could use it on himself before heading into a likely fatal confrontation with the Nazis.  He'll know that it's likely he won't survive, and that in the worse case scenario, they take him prisoner and keep him alive to torture him.  If he doses himself beforehand, they won't get more than a few days to have a little fun with him.  Cancer is killing him anyway, so a little ricin won't make much difference at this point.

DEATH ROUND-UP

Walt - DEAD
Jesse - DEAD (sobs)
Skyler - If she dies, it would be fitting if Walt witnesses it, just to punish him as much as possible.  I can't see a scenario that leads to anyone killing Skyler, and I don't think she would commit suicide.  So, let's say: ALIVE, even though I have to admit, I'd like to see her die.
Junior and Holly - ALIVE (please)
Saul - ALIVE (Lawyers are like cockroaches.)
Lydia - DEAD
Todd - ALIVE (This guy is so evil, he almost has to survive.)
Nazis - DEAD
Marie - ALIVE (And wearing purple.)
Huell - ALIVE (Still sitting on that couch in the safehouse.)

My head hurts from trying to work this all out.  I've been so shocked by the show this season, it's probable that the exact opposite of everything I typed above will happen.

I'd love to hear your thoughts!